New Delhi: As assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir conclude, most exit poll results indicate that the BJP is on the back foot in both regions, affirming earlier trends. In Haryana, surveys suggest that Congress is poised to gain power.
In Jammu & Kashmir, while no party is projected to secure an outright majority, many surveys suggest a significant advancement for the National Conference. This prompts an intriguing inquiry: do the current exit polls mirror the outcomes of the previous Lok Sabha elections?
Who has the advantage in Haryana? About seven exit polls predict a rise for Congress in Haryana. Most surveys indicate that the party may secure an outright majority. Leading polls, including India Today-C voter, Dhruv Research, People’s Pulse, and Republic TV-P Marq, all confirm Congress’s victory, predicting only a second-place finish for the BJP, and even that without half the seats.
What about Jammu & Kashmir? Notably, this is the first assembly election in Jammu & Kashmir in ten years. Many surveys indicate that the BJP will not achieve the expected gains here. However, while no party is likely to secure an outright majority, surveys suggest that a Congress-National Conference alliance may come to power. Polls from India Today-C voter and Axis My India predict the same outcome.
Is this an indication of a national shift? While exit polls in these two states suggest a potential change in governance from the BJP to opposition parties, it cannot be conclusively said that this reflects a broader national political shift. Many local factors significantly influence the results in both regions. For instance, in Haryana, there has been substantial anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling BJP, which has been in power for the last two terms. Factors such as opposition from the Jat community, protests by wrestlers, and farmers’ agitation have significantly affected the BJP’s standing in Haryana.
Similarly, in Jammu & Kashmir, local issues have posed challenges for the BJP, particularly the abrogation of Kashmir’s special status and the revocation of statehood. Both Congress and the National Conference have highlighted these issues in their campaigns. Viewed from another angle, these results could signal a setback for the BJP on a national scale. Although the NDA holds a majority in the Lok Sabha, they still face challenges in the Rajya Sabha. The opposition’s representation in the Rajya Sabha is likely to be bolstered by the results in these two regions, potentially leading to setbacks for the BJP in the upper house.
